The AIDS Epidemic

Stephen Lewis, former UN-envoy to Africa for HIV/AIDS and author of "Race against time" spoke at Thompson Rivers University this past Thursday. One of the most shocking statements he made (and he did make several) was about the growth and prevalence of HIV/AIDS in Africa.

"For every two people we get on treatment, five more become infected," he said. Now, while that seems horrifying, let us examine the growth pattern so we can fully realize how scary arithmetic growth like this is.

According to Lewis, if two people receive treatment another five become infected with the disease. So, if we then treat two of those five, five more become infected. This is only the second generation of this equation and we are seeing four people on treatment (two plus two) alongside eight infected. We can extrapolate the equation to look like this:

Third generation: six in treatment, 11 infected
Four generation: eight in treatment, 14 infected
Fifth generation: ten in treatment, 17 infected
Sixth generation: 12 in treatment, 20 infected
...
The thousandth generation: 2000 in treatment, 5000 infected

This highlights the chaos and the horror that is mathematical growth, whether arithmetic (where the numbers grow by a set rate continuously) or exponential (where numbers double each generation).

This is a graph that documents the rise of those undergoing anti-retro viral treatment for HIV/AIDS against the growth of the disease.